Substantive Shifts
Discover more from Reserve Report
“…from ESG - tweeting that it is ‘the paper straw of investing’ because it’s ‘symbolic, not substantive’ - to SPACs: ‘There’s so much dog sh*t there,’” - from Michelle Celarier’s profile (in II) of Carson Block / Muddy Waters
Editor’s Notes:
Last week, we were trigger-happy - the newsletter fired while in-edit…
Next week - ahead of earnings - we plan to profile a US E&P
For now, we’ll just say: we like the stock
OIL.
A number of variables in the Oil supply / demand equation are in play.
We’ll start with the good:
The US is recovering faster than expected
China is recovering faster than expected
*Excessive* global stimulus
The (potentially) bad:
An Indian virus variant is of new concern
Lockdowns have “resumed” in Germany / France
The Iran-China deal
And, the hard-to-forecast:
Libya’s NOC declares force majeure
OPEC(+): meetings re/ Iranian production (& China deal), Russia’s compliance / willingness, &
So far, these variables have netted out to - in the short-term - higher crude prices.
Our take - if the US / China recoveries surprise (further) to the upside, then expect crude prices to continue rise -
OTHER NEWS.
India is expected to follow China, building new coal plants. As pointed out by Javier Blas, China is now expected to hit a *new* peak in coal consumption this year…
This time last year, WTI went negative
A series of interviews worth watching
The (retired) king of gas stirs the pot
Gas price earnings surprises may be coming
If you have a few minutes to spare, the II profile of Carson Block is worth the read.
That’s it for this week - for anyone following the European Super League news, we’ll note that it reminds us of the origins of the EuroLeague basketball system - if you’re struggling to grok what European football (soccer) may look like going forward, then check out the EuroLeague (basketball) license format - that’s our best guess as to what may come - catch y’all next week -