Risk-reward
“Above all, we have actively & repeatedly encouraged institutions to use their capital buffers for their primary purpose: to support safe & sound lending throughout the credit cycle” - Fed Governor Quarles
***Editor’s note: the above quote is worth considering, in the context of bank lending. Will reg-cap relief be used, or abused? We expect Congress to be uniformly at odds w/ “safe & sound”. And understandably so, as they aren’t properly incentivized.***
MARKET NARRATIVES.
Paul Singer, David Tepper, & now Stan Druckenmiller have expressed concerns that there’s more risk in asset markets than prices imply.
While all concede that QE / money-printing has played out as expected (when QE is on, equities rip), the smart-money consensus seems to be that the Fed providing liquidity doesn’t solve for the coming insolvencies.
“The risk-reward for equity is maybe as bad as I’ve seen it in my career” - Druckenmiller, at the ECNY
If fear shows up & asset prices drop, then it’ll be apparent in fund flows data.
On that note, let’s check in on weekly flows:
$36BN into cash
$16BN into bonds
$2BN into gold
$6BN out of equities
While those aren’t dramatic amounts, they do fit the concerning / risk-off narrative.
Looking a little closer - at ETF flows - emotions are running high:
Precious metals (gold) - there’s your fear.
And energy (oil) - after record price declines - there’s your greed.
“The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets” - Baron Rothschild
The long-gold trade has worked.
The oil trade… that one’s depended a little more on timing -
CRUDE.
The OPEC MOMR & US EIA STEO reports came out earlier this week.
While the updates look negative relative to their prior editions, when compared to more recent / 3rd-party estimates, they aren’t that bad.
Demand seems to be recovering.
Albeit from a steep decline.
Both organizations forecast Q2 as being the peak of demand destruction -
So far as a 2nd wave of the virus is averted, we’d agree
A recent, strange silver lining - for crude products - has been a fear of public transport.
And while we expect more commuters - on a relative basis - to drive…
…more still, will Zoom -
OTHER NEWS.
Stan Druckenmiller’s interview at the Econ Club of NYC
Graham Duncan’s latest blog post is worth the time
Bloomberg found the Cushing Pig: BB Energy
That’s it for today - the Bundesliga is back: Dortmund / Schalke kick-off the return of team sports - catch y’all Tuesday -