“There are no whole truths: all truths are half-truths. It is trying to treat them as whole truths that plays to the devil” - Alfred North Whitehead
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BP ENERGY OUTLOOK.
What used to be an insightful report is now…
… political nonsense.
Western E&Ps are being pressured by poorly conceived political agendas.
This take concisely explains the irony of the situation:
“The biggest issue I have with BP’s net zero ambitions vs. other E&P’s (using CNQ as an example) is the reliance on corporate actions (A&D) to meet its emissions goals. BP is targeting $25BN in divestments between now & 2025. This capital needed to “advance its strategy” using E&P sale proceeds to fund low carbon investments.”
“The sold assets won’t stop producing (or emitting GHGs) they will just be owned by a less environmentally stringent operator (most likely NOCs).”
“On an absolute basis, will the E&P reserves/production owned by BP TODAY be producing more or less GHGs in 2030/2050?”
“By selling the assets, **BP is most certainly ensuring that the assets will have more GHG than if they had remained inside BP**. Is the world better off with this action? This is just carbon leakage” - @yyc_sem
Over the next decade, players like SINOPEC, Aramco, & ADNOC will be the main beneficiaries of Leftist / Green Parties’ climate agendas, and - if the Greens were truly sincere - they should be asking themselves, “why?”
Or they could just ask SEM -
The Australian & Californian Wildfires have - in increasing frequency - made headlines over the past few years.
[Editor’s note: yrs ago, Matt briefly lived at the foot of Coit Tower]
Photo Cred: @KenWayne
What’s of note is that there’s been a political fight - in both cases - involving the same parties…
…Green Activists & the Logging Industry.
*Anti-Prescribed Burns vs Pro-Prescribed Burns*
[FWIW, we’ve found the “Pro” case to be convincing]
In a surprising turn of events, California - in recent weeks - moved to “Pro-Burn”:
“…in a little-noticed milestone, state officials signed a major agreement with the federal government that aims to reshape how forests are managed for years to come.”
“Under the plan, California agencies and the U.S. Forest Service will use brush clearing, logging and prescribed fires to thin out 1MM acres a year by 2025 - an area larger than Yosemite National Park every 12 months, and roughly double the current rate of thinning, which already is double rates from a few years ago” - Mercury News (San Jose)
We view this development as a resounding positive.
Albeit it late…
Still, we’ll take it.
Over the years, local news outlets - in both Australia & California - have done an outstanding job at covering the Pro vs Anti burn groups.
It’s been a heated battle [pun intended].
If you could only read three articles on the topic, we’d recommend:
All the signs of a smokescreen - Sydney Morning Herald (‘02)
Fighting fire with fire - Sacramento Bee (‘19)
California fires - Mercury News (San Jose - ‘20)
They say every cloud has a silver lining…
Even the smokey ones -
On Friday, a short report was published. Nikola was the target.
By Monday, the SEC was looking into it.
It may be nothing…
But - for 2020 - that kind of action is *rare* -
Yergin’s new book is out
Apache’s IR game is a roller-coaster ride
UBS & CS explore a merger
The Redneck Riviera is expecting Hurricane Sally
Libyan oil may be returning to market at an inconvenient time…
Business Note: The contributors of the newsletter offer valuation services - we do everything from E&P credit to minerals. Looks like this, but w/ fewer words & more spreadsheets - contact Matt (firstname.lastname@example.org) or Pierre (email@example.com) for more information -
Two weeks ago, the Dallas Stars checked a couple boxes - yesterday, they made the Stanley Cup Finals - if Tampa wins tonight, they’ll be Stars’ last box to check - catch y’all next week -