Like Moths in the Fire
“... in moments of crisis our thoughts do not run consecutively but rather sweep over us in waves of intuition and experience...” - John Le Carré
Russia - a few things of note:
Two weeks ago, we were convinced this would happen
Last week, we heard a good argument (from a George Friedman interview) on why Russia *would not* do what they just did (and subsequently had less conviction)
Last night, we set up a Russia-focused Twitter List for the purposes of following coming events
The Friedman interview is still worth listening to, as it contains valid takes on expected Western responses to this event.
For those unfamiliar with George, he’s had - in the past - US / Russian / Asian / Euro Generals (among others) on payroll as sources; he probably (still) does today.
That said, we still think an invasion is imminent.
They’ll get unreasonably close to the action. Hopefully, not too close…
Re/ our overdue China work: we’ve amassed too much to publish in email form; TBD on how we will publish it, but it will not be coming imminently -