“Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets” - attributed to Nathan Rothschild
SUMMARY:
Both Saudi export routes targeted. Between Oct 24th-28th, the Houthis claimed hits on the East–West pipeline’s pumping stations, Aramco Yanbu and the Rabigh refinery.
Iran’s line on Hormuz. Iran’s security chief Rezaei says Hormuz stays closed until Iran’s conditions are met; Trump says the war will “end soon” as Qatar pushes a US–Iran deal.
Ukraine back on refineries. Strikes resumed after about two weeks of quiet that came under US pressure - Novokuibyshevsk, Ufa, & Kstovo have been hit.
SAUDI.
The Saudi–Houthi war is now a direct threat to Saudi oil exports.
On Oct 24th, the Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on seven Saudi targets, including Aramco Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery, the East–West pipeline’s pumping stations, and the airports at Riyadh and Dammam.
Saudi forces reported intercepts over Riyadh, Yanbu, Taif, Mecca & Medina.
On October 28th, a fire broke out near Ras Tanura after intercepts, which means both export routes have now been reached: Ras Tanura on the Gulf and Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Damage looks contained so far, and Aramco is reportedly arranging a $10BN credit line.
Saudi airstrikes intensified after Houthi advances toward Bab al-Mandeb, and the 2022 truce has effectively collapsed.
On Iran, Hormuz traffic is recovering in practice.
About 60 ships crossed on October 28th, and CENTCOM is saying it has helped partners export more than 1.5BN bbls since the summer.
Tehran’s official line is still that Hormuz stays closed until its conditions are met, while Qatar-brokered talks continue.
RUSSIA.
Strikes had paused for about two weeks, which reports tie to US pressure and a 30-day pause requested by Kushner.
Ukraine says it never agreed to one. On October 30th, Ukrainian FP-1 drones hit Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk refinery in Samara - about 175 kb/d - and satellite imagery reportedly showed all its primary units damaged.
Bashneft’s Novoil refinery in Ufa, about 1,200km from the border, was hit on October 31st.
Kstovo, near Nizhny Novgorod, was set ablaze last night.
Novak confirmed three refineries and a gas-chemical plant were targeted.
Russian refinery runs were up 25% in the second half of October, as strikes had dropped.
That recovery is now at risk just as Russia extends its diesel export ban to the end of January, which should keep diesel margins in Europe and elsewhere high.
OTHER.
TTF was back above €100/MWh on Oct 28th
Oil & Gas majors closed the week at record highs
That’s it for tonight - enjoy the week ahead -