Cyclones

"Research is to see what everybody else has seen and to think what nobody else has thought" - Albert Szent-Györgyi

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HURRICANES.

Multi-variable hurricane models - where the # of hurricanes is >1 - don’t appear to exist.

On Wednesday, the two storms in the Gulf of Mexico may actually converge…

Storms:

• Storm Marco is now a tropical depression, down from from a Cat-1 hurricane

• Meanwhile, Storm Laura is expected to intensify to a Cat-2

For oil, the effect of the storms is already priced in:

• Producers have shut-in ~80% of GoM production

• WTI is relatively flat, hardly responding

However, we’ve yet to see a storm model that can clearly explain the effects that the storms will have on one-another.

But, meteorology is a tough task…

So we’ll give the meteorologists & their explanations (or lack-there-of) a pass.

The market’s forecast is ~ “no big deal”, so that’s our base case -

Two final notes on the storms:

• Sam (TankerTrackers) linked to a couple good visuals

• Dan Graeber wrote a short piece on demand & production shut-ins

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IPO WINDOW.

Outside of oil - but of note - a large number of venture-backed tech companies have filed S-1s in a very short period of time.

In late August.

The number of companies & the investors are particularly noteworthy.

Companies:

• Asana

• Snowflake

• Palantir

• Unity

Founders Fund, Benchmark, & Sequoia have led multiple venture capital financing rounds for this group.

Of late, the partners from those firms - most noticeably Bill Gurley - have been shouting from the rooftops that venture-backed tech-cos should go public (one way or another).

ASAP.

Realistically, many of these firms could have skipped prior rounds & gone public in recent years…

…so the real question is:

Why *now* ?

After filing an S-1, it takes ~10-12 weeks until a company reaches the IPO finish-line.

So, whatever the reason (election, equity market conditions, macro concerns, etc.), we’re not expecting any imminent surprises…

…but after Q4…

We’ll be on the look-out.

Bc these guys *are*.

Enough so, that they’re blatantly showing their hands -

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OTHER NEWS.

• A quick comment from WoodMac on hedging

• Arena Energy filed for bankruptcy

• Bloomberg on trade finance

• J-Pow speaks on Thursday

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Utah, Denver & Dallas (NBA) all put on a show on Sunday - the encore is tonight - catch y’all next week -