"Research is to see what everybody else has seen and to think what nobody else has thought" - Albert Szent-Györgyi
Multi-variable hurricane models - where the # of hurricanes is >1 - don’t appear to exist.
On Wednesday, the two storms in the Gulf of Mexico may actually converge…
Storm Marco is now a tropical depression, down from from a Cat-1 hurricane
Meanwhile, Storm Laura is expected to intensify to a Cat-2
For oil, the effect of the storms is already priced in:
However, we’ve yet to see a storm model that can clearly explain the effects that the storms will have on one-another.
But, meteorology is a tough task…
So we’ll give the meteorologists & their explanations (or lack-there-of) a pass.
The market’s forecast is ~ “no big deal”, so that’s our base case -
Two final notes on the storms:
Outside of oil - but of note - a large number of venture-backed tech companies have filed S-1s in a very short period of time.
In late August.
The number of companies & the investors are particularly noteworthy.
Founders Fund, Benchmark, & Sequoia have led multiple venture capital financing rounds for this group.
Of late, the partners from those firms - most noticeably Bill Gurley - have been shouting from the rooftops that venture-backed tech-cos should go public (one way or another).
Realistically, many of these firms could have skipped prior rounds & gone public in recent years…
…so the real question is:
Why *now* ?
After filing an S-1, it takes ~10-12 weeks until a company reaches the IPO finish-line.
So, whatever the reason (election, equity market conditions, macro concerns, etc.), we’re not expecting any imminent surprises…
…but after Q4…
We’ll be on the look-out.
Bc these guys *are*.
Enough so, that they’re blatantly showing their hands -
A quick comment from WoodMac on hedging
Arena Energy filed for bankruptcy
Bloomberg on trade finance
Utah, Denver & Dallas (NBA) all put on a show on Sunday - the encore is tonight - catch y’all next week -