Asset Viability
“…who knows actually where the viability of our assets will go in many cases?” - Ben van Beurden, Shell CEO [transcript link]
Noteworthy Dates:
May 5th: Texas RRC proration decision
May 11th: Oklahoma CC proration hearing
May 20th: Trading terminates on June WTI contract
June 10th: OPEC+ teleconference
Editor’s Note: the RRC issued an agenda for the May 5th meeting. Appendix A (pg 19), included details on how proration would work.
After that agenda was published, Commissioner Wayne Christian (viewed as the swing vote) issued an Op-ed against proration. We now expect that to be the outcome of the May 5th meeting.
EARNINGS.
Shell cuts dividend for 1st time since WWII
Concho reports a $9.3BN loss
Conoco has the largest planned cuts among US producers…
Coincidentally, its share price has performed better than peers
We suspect… *good management*
And Shell - as dramatic as van Beurden’s statements or Shell’s actions may seem, we broadly agree with Shell’s plan.
This may have been the most overdue statement from a Major:
“…we need to ensure we strike a balance between shorter-term shareholder distributions, longevity of these returns and the potential to grow these returns in the future” - van Beurden
Concho was the eye-popper of the week:
“Included in the Company’s Q1 2020 results are $12.6BN in impairment charges related to the substantial weakness in commodity prices. As such, the Company reported a net loss of $9.3BN, or $47.49 / share” - Concho
The non-cash hit probably had something to do with downspacing, too -
THE INTERVIEW.
The (in)famous (& anonymous) @WillRayValentin did his first audio interview.
We recommend the listen - it’s ~30min.
On the other side of the mic, Jake, Collin & the live audience did a great job w/ questions.
Here’s a taste:
“I would describe it down to one detail - the bubble-point pressure of the oil, in the STACK is really, really high. And so, [if] you drill a well & bring the reservoir above bubble-point, your recovery factors go way down.”
“You’re talking almost double, say the Bakken - so, the downspace-ability of the Bakken was really high because the bubble-point was really low.”
“And the downspace-ability of the STACK was really low because the bubble-point was so high… and that’s what killed the STACK” - BRV, (DW interview)
VIRUS UPDATE.
Much of the US & Europe is set to re-open in May.
Looking out the window, Texas reported 50 COVID deaths yesterday.
The low total is great…
…but it’s the highest # so far.
Not worth a lock-down, but - still - growth is worrisome.
Looking outside of our time-zones:
The FT on Western Europe vs Eastern Europe
South Korea reports no new cases
The US is considering a travel ban on Brazil - it may become the new virus epicenter
And Japan…
From governor Hideaki Ōmura, of Aichi (population 7.5MM) on why Tokyo is not providing daily COVID stats (translated):
“Medical services in Tokyo are overflowing with the inability to receive patients”
We’re hoping for an uneventful May, but we’re not betting on it -
OTHER NEWS.
And then there were two… Kieth Richards & a cockroach -
Reuters reports that Chesapeake is preparing a Ch.11 filing.
We’ll chalk it up as shale gave up on Chesapeake, and not the other way around -
What happens when wells are shut-in
Reuters on bailouts & US energy
At the same time, the opposite is happening in Venezuela
FIFA’s plan to finish the season
That’s it for this week, we’ll be back on Tuesday - for the sports gamblers, there’s 7x Belarusian footie games tomorrow - get in on the action -